In an article published by The Washington Post Álvaro Corral, assistant professor of political science at The College of Wooster and David Leal, professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin, share that based on their research, while Latinos could become the largest minority voting group in 2020, the increasing voters are not likely to vote democrat. The article calls attention to the issues that these voters respond to and who they’re likely to support in 2020 and beyond.
A research study by the scholars published in Social Science Quarterly concluded that “Trump did better than expected among Latinos” in 2016 and analysis of election and survey data from 2016 and 2012, indicates a complicated picture of the political implications of this demographic change.
Comparing five surveys from 2012 and 2016, including the Pew Research Center’s National Survey of Latinos, they found “protestants, third-generation Latinos, and lower-income Latinos supported Trump more than they had Romney.” They note that Latino Protestants are likely to support Trump because of their conservative views on many issues, while lower- and middle-income Latinos respond to messaging “promising to revitalize blue-collar jobs and manufacturing industries.”
Noting that third-generation Latinos also supported Trump in larger numbers than Romney, Corral and Leal wrote in the article for the Post, “These Latinos are the grandchildren of immigrants and were born in the United States to U.S.-born parents. Trump received 30 percent support from these Latinos with deeper ties to the United States.” They suggest, “Trump’s ‘America First’ rhetoric might have appealed to some Latinos of the third and later generations, most of whom prefer to self-identify as American rather than as ‘Latino’ or ‘Hispanic.’”
Their research in Social Science Quarterly, states that “if many Latinos did not abandon Trump—a candidate with little Latino outreach and who made inflammatory comments about Mexico and Mexican immigrants and positioned himself as an immigration hardliner—then it calls into question the ability of Democrats to fully benefit from demographic change.” Instead they see these elements of Latino diversity—religion, class, and generational status—continuing to benefit Republicans in the long term if current trends continue.